It's an annual tradition.
Okay, maybe it's not as anticipated or as celebrated, as say Christmas, as an example, or even National Chinese Takeout Day (November 5th, in case you forgot), but once per year, as we move boldly into Hot Stove Season, I pen my Mariners Crystal Ball Offseason Forecast.
My personal Crystal Ball, which is probably no fancier than your crystal ball (I got mine at Marshall"s), has a special design. Mystically, it marries equally what I want the Mariners to do this offseason with what I think they'll do. The result: I will gladly accept the financial restrictions Jerry & Justin admittedly operate under to create a doable laundry list of roster moves that I believe would deliver a World Championship to Seattle.
In the end, the Mariners will ignore me. But as strange as it may or may not be, my moves and the M's actual moves do occasionally overlap. Let's see how close we get for 2026.
So, here we go...
November 18th, the Mariners announce that they have re-signed 1B Josh Naylor to a 5-year, $92.5 million deal.
Okay, so, we already know that this is going to happen. But in my defense, I've been predicting this for months and nearly to the dollar. Personally, I don't believe the Mariners were hellbent on keeping Naylor when they traded for him at the Deadline. I think the reason for the move was to grab a player who could help push the team to a Division title. And it worked. But along the way, and it didn't take long, the Mariners front office, the coaching staff, the clubhouse, the fanbase and Seattle media all realized Josh Naylor is just too good of a fit not to keep. And now, they've figured it out.
Naylor was the first free agent to sign this offseason, and I believe there are some very positive things you can read into that.
1) Ownership was willing to pay market value for the right high-priced MLB free agent. I don't have to tell you; that hasn't always been the case (putting it mildly).
2) Naylor enjoyed his time in Seattle, and with the Mariners, so much that he and his agency didn't feel compelled to test the market. The Red Sox, the Mets and the Yankees are all in need of a firstbaseman. Naylor could've certainly played this sucker out and driven up the price to exceed 18.5 per year. Instead, he signed Seattle's value offer and opted not to seek greener pastures. He's rich. He's on a good (maybe even great) young team that should win for years to come. The fanbase adores him. And he avoids the larger markets that his personality doesn't seem to fit.
3) Management can check 1B off the offseason shopping list. Luke Raley is coming off a bad year. Tyler Locklear was traded to get Naylor. Pete Alonso is going to demand too large a salary. Had the M's not locked up Josh, the search to fill a major hole at 1B might have gotten sticky in a hurry.
Needless to say, the Josh Naylor signing was the perfect way to start the offseason. And trust me when I tell you, the Crystal Ball was all over it.
So, what's next?
November 26th, the day before Thanksgiving, the Mariners announce the return of a delicious side dish to add to our Offseason feast. No need to say a prayer for the re-signing of Jorge Polanco, Grandpa. No, you can keep this year's grace focused on less important things like family health, world peace and a break from the rain, cuz the Crystal Ball says Polanco agrees to a 2-year, $26 million deal before Uncle Jed carves the Roast Beast.
Polanco rebounded in 2025 with a sensational 26-HR campaign. His .821 OPS and 134 OPS+ were actually higher than Julio's. He also stamped our postseason memories with 2 HR's off Tarik Skubal in the ALDS. Polanco started the 2025 campaign as the M's third baseman. That didn't work out so well. But he recovered from his defensive struggles at the hot corner, the oblique that troubled him for most of the first halt and his terrible 2024 season in Seattle. And now I want him back. I think we all want him back.
Some Hot Stove rumors have Polanco accepting a three-year deal from pursuers Pittsburgh or Milwaukee, but the Seattle front office has made it clear that they're offseason begins with fighting to keep some of their own. They've locked down Naylor. The Crystal Ball believes Polanco will be next.
For me, Polanco serves the primary role of DH. After all, he's entering his age 33 season, he's not really good defensively anywhere and he has a history of injuries. But I wouldn't want him to put his glove away. He can see some time at 2nd; maybe even take over if Cole Young doesn't take the step forward that I expect him to take. Hell, he might even be asked to give 3rd base a second try. Remember, he was rehabbing from injury during Spring Training 2025. Probably wasn't the ideal situation for learning a new position.
So, what else?
Is that it?
Crystal Ball warns: That could be it.
The Mariners Front Office didn't have to announce that they intend to start 2026 with the payroll they finished with in 2025. But they did announce it. That would give Seattle roughly $30m to spend this offseason, and Crystal Ball has already surpassed that, committing 31.5 million in new money without having added anything to roster.
Certainly, the Mariners don't seem likely to re-sign Naylor, Polanco AND Suarez. And although I don't rule out the possibility of bringing Geno back, I do believe the organization will prioritize Polanco. It will sting to lose Geno Suarez for a second time. He's one of the most beloved Mariners of all-time and now the author of arguably the biggest hit in franchise history. But Crystal Ball isn't counting on his return.
That will likely leave Ben Williamson as the team's starting 3B to begin 2025. And although that wouldn't be anyone's dream 3B, there's nothing wrong with that scenario. Williamson is clearly an excellent defender and a ballplayer through-and-through. I wouldn't mind giving him a chance to show he can lock down the job. But certainly, if he starts the season at 3rd, you can't help but leave open the possibility of upgrading at the position for a 2nd year in a row at the Deadline.
Also for your consideration, M's top prospect (#9 overall in all of MLB) Colt Emerson is expected to be ready at some point in 2026. It's not out of the question that Emerson will start his promising Major League career at 3rd base and then replace JP Crawford as the full-time SS in 2027.
Lineup...
CF Rodriguez
C Raleigh
1B Naylor
DH Polanco
LF Arozarena
SS Crawford
RF Canzone/Robles/Raley
2B Young
3B Williamson
So, that's really it, Crystal Ball? Re-sign Naylor and Polanco and call it a day?
Although I do believe that the significant moves could end there for Seattle this Winter, of course we're not going to stop there. After all, this is also an exercise of what I'd like to see Seattle do this offseason, just as long as I stay under budget. And that's where Crystal Ball has elected to step it up a notch.
Time to swing a trade.
For the second year in a row, Crystal Ball has Seattle sending Luis Castillo to Philadelphia. This just in: Luis Castillo didn't get traded to Philadelphia last year.
But Crystal Ball can't let this feeling, this itch, go.
December 8th, Day 2 of the WInter Meetings, Seattle trades SP Luis Castillo to Philadelphia for RP Matt Strahm & prospects.
I realize that NO ONE in Seattle is going to like this trade. But if the Mariners are going to do anything creative to improve the team this offseason, they're likely going to have to clear money. The only logical places to unload a big salary are Randy Arozarena (16m for 1 year) or Luis Castillo (22.5m for 2 more years).
Considering the organization has strength and depth at SP, Castillo seems more logical to move. And as much as some fans/analysts get nervous about trading starting pitching, there is very little wrong with a 2026 starting rotation of:
Gilbert
Kirby
Woo
Miller
Hancock or Evans
with Kade Anderson on the way.
You probably aren't happy with the return either. Well, this is not some fantasy outlook. This exercise tries to remain steeped in reality. And here's the reality...
The Mariners couldn't find a team to take Castillo's entire salary last offseason. What doors they knocked on about a possible trade involving Castillo, the recipient always asked "how much of Castillo's salary are you willing to eat?"
They weren't willing to eat any of it. They simply thought too highly of Castillo. They clearly valued him more than anyone else. So, they kept him, and it's a good thing they did. The Rock was good this year.
However, the Mariners didn't exactly lean on him as an Ace in the postseason. When given the chance, and they were given multiple chances, the decision was to go to Kirby when they had to have a win.
Well, Castillo is a year older and just as expensive, which means his trade value has dropped even more from an offseason ago. Crystal Ball is thinking: If the Mariners could grab a high-priced middle reliever, whose salary the Phillies are looking to unload, in exchange for no worse than a middle-of-the-rotation proven SP to replace free agent Ranger Suarez, might we have a deal?
Of course, Strahm is no slouch. The lefty was an All-Star in 2024, and is coming off another solid, if not spectacular, 2025 campaign.
2.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 70 K's in 62 IP.
But at age 34, and carrying a hefty (for a reliever) $7.5 million salary, the Phillies are reportedly shopping Strahm. The M's could use a really good lefty reliever and could free up $15m in salary without having to eat any of Castillo's contract.
But you then have to do something with those savings...
My first thought is: Munetaka Murakami.
The Japanese power hitter, who registers the rarely seen 80 power grade in scouting reports, is coming to America. Contract expectations are wildly varied. I've read reports suggesting a deal as high as 10 years, $220 million and as reasonable as 5 years, $80 mill. Let's split the difference. 7 years, $135.
$19 mill per year for the 25-year old Murakami?
Yes. I would do it. THIS is the move I make!
Will the Mariners? After newly investing in Naylor and Polanco?
I don't know.
So, let's discuss something I believe they would do, something I believe will soothe the nerves of those worried about trading starting pitching.
December 26th, a Boxing Day celebration, the Mariners announce a blockbuster.
Seattle sends Harry Ford, Logan Evans, Dom Canzone & Carlos Vargas to Minnesota for SP Joe Ryan & C Ryan Jeffers
My first reaction to Crystal Ball's forecast? We might not be offering enough. We might have to throw in Felnin Celestin or Michael Arroyo instead of Canzone. After all, Ryan is 29, has three years left on his original deal with the Twins and is coming off a stellar season. 3.42 ERA, 1.075 WHIP, 194 K's in 171 IP and a 4.5 WAR. As a comparison, Bryan Woo had a 4.2 WAR during his 2025 All-Star season.
But Crystal Ball wants to go with the deal I've listed...
The Mariners get a better, younger, cheaper ($6m due in 2026) SP than Castillo in Ryan. The M's use their wealth of prospects to land him. They use Ford, who is blocked by Cal Raleigh for years to come, as the foundation for the move.
And now...
Ryan
Gilbert
Woo
Kirby
Miller
with Kade Anderson still on the way.
C Ryan Jeffers might remind everyone too much of Mitch Garver. But he gives Seattle a legit 29-year old backup catcher carrying a $6.5m salary for another season. He could DH some, just as Garver did a year ago. And let's face it, Minnesota is on a rebuilding crusade, looking to cut money wherever they can.
And I still have $1 million of the Mariners money to spend.
February 14th. The Mariners announce a Valentine's Day deal with former Yankee RP Jonathan Loaisiga.
Loaisiga throws hard and misses bats. The 31-year old is coming off a rough season (4.25 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 25 K in 29.2 IP), which is perfect for the Mariners organization. They love hard-throwing, bat-missing projects.
And now, Seattle has improved an already good bullpen...
CL Munoz
RSU Brash
LSU Strahm
RP Bazardo
LP Speier
RP Loaisiga
RP Santos
RP Hancock
So, there you go. Crystal Ball, you've done it again. An interesting, roster-improving offseason, without adding a single dollar to the Mariners' desired payroll.
I feel good about it. You?
Thanks Crystal Ball. We'd be nowhere without you. Have a great time with the grandkids this Holiday Season.